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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Failed Experiment Could Mean Subtle Change In Message of the Market Ahead

While confiscation, passed as a tax, plays out in Europe, the vast majority of investors are likely to underestimate the magnitude of the battle underway.

Jim said it best, so why rehash it?

The Central Bank of Cyprus doesn't even know how big the Russian deposits are because it is held as secret at the behest of the Russians. It is a secret banking system set up for the Russians, by the Russians, and the IMF has just taken a large bite out of that elephant.

Part of the result of all of this is the Russian elite will now move heavily out of currencies and into gold. Going forward, the Russian sovereign entity will now support the price of gold and it will be for the benefit of the Russian oligarchy. This will also serve to bring Russian and Chinese financial interests closer together, and, in time, will finally result in freeing the gold market from Western price manipulation and influence.

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Although the usual 'lockdown' of markets ahead of the Fed meeting should reduce volatility over the short-term, it shouldn't prevent a subtle change in the message of the markets in the coming weeks.  The Cyprus experiment has made it clear that QE remains the only tool available to handle the world's evolving debt crisis without serious social and political consequences.  Since QE is the grease that lubricates the wheels of higher assets prices, a big correction ahead for stocks would not be a high probability event.

Watch gap support (chart).  If the gap is filled on lighter volume, it suggests waning downside force and a bullish setup.

Chart:  Nasdaq OTC




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