Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Review of the U.S. Dollar Index $UUP

US Dollar Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The US Dollar Index's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Canadian Dollar Review $FXA #Loonie #Free

Silver Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Silver's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

The Canadian Dollar's (Loonie) rally, a process that's transitioning the majority from bearish to bullish, could very well be pushed to limits in 2017. Breakdown gaps from 82.59 to 82.62 and 83.50 to 83.70 formed on heavy volume in January 2015 represent the limit of the rally. A high volume weekly close above these gaps reverses the trend from cause building to mark up (new bull market).

Chart1
Visit StockCharts.com to see more great charts.

The Loonies aligned up impulse has produced a current, maximum, and minimum annualized return profile of 34%, 90%, and 0%, respectively. BuS, a normalized Z scored that has climbed above 0, defines the growing restraint of TIME on the (countertrend) rally for subscribers. Only PIG will be holding the Loonie when TIME expires. These and other trends are tracked in detail in the Matrix and Trading Notes.

For further discussion please join EricDeGrootsInsights.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Shorting VIX Might Seem Like A Free Lunch But Smart Money Moves In and Out with Alignment


News
Is shorting the VIX a free lunch? A quick glance at the VXX chart suggests it. Computer study of VXX, however, reveals that buying and selling upside and downside alignment of price and volume significantly outperforms buy-and-hold (see Table).

Buy-and-hold (B&H) has produced an annualized return of -60% since 2009; a profit of 60% for shorts.  Seven bullish alignments of price and volume have been generated since 2009; they averaged 6 weeks.  Upside alignment produced a 6% average annualized return with 231% and -77% maximum and minimum.  Downside alignment, a bullish trend, produced a 1640% average annualized return with 61101% and -19% minimum.

Table


Headline: Is Shorting Volatility A Free Lunch?

Thinking about shorting volatility? You’re not alone.

Short interest in the long volatility ETN (VXX) has exploded higher in recent months.


more

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Chart of The Day Potential Upside Alignment In Dow Transports In September #Free

Chart of The Day
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February, Mark Twain

There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can, Mark Twain


Tradition technical analysis, a discipline full of moving averages, stochastics, relative strength, chart patterns, and volume, is largely inconsistent and opinion driven. Bull and bears attempt to enter the trend through interpretation that's as much opinion (art form) as discipline (experience and skill). Successful trading/investing focuses solely on discipline through the study of price, volume, and time. Price, volume, and time define the message of the market.

Subscriber Comments

Potential (meaning we won't know until the end of September) upside alignment the Dow Transports' primary trend would be bullish. Sorry bears! Don't expect this to influence their bearish calls since far too many ignore or can't read the tape.

Trading Notes tracks the primary trends of 41 markets.

Chart1


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Trading Notes Updated

Trading Notes
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed. Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Trading Notes can be accessed with a special key.

Trading Notes Sample: 07/03/17

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

The Matrix
The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities to buy or sell commodities, US treasury bonds, foreign exchange markets, and domestic and international equity markets.

The Matrix has been redesigned to display not only leverage but also price and volume alignment. Price and volume alignment anticipates future prices better than price and leverage alignment.

Gain access to the message of the market to trade like a professional today.


The Matrix



Select Market

Australian Dollar   British Pound   Canadian Dollar   Cocoa   Coffee   Copper   Corn   Cotton   Crude Oil   Euro   Heating Oil   Gasoline   Gold   Lean Hogs   Live Cattle   Lumber   Nasdaq 100   Natural Gas   Nikkei   Palladium   Platinum   Russell 2000   S&P 500   Silver   Soybeans   Sugar   Swiss Franc   US Dollar Index   US 10YR Bonds   US Treasury Bonds   Wheat   Yen


Insights is a forum that uses the markets as the ultimate teacher and provides unique perspective on capital market, economic, and geopolitical trends.

NEW Facebook Group has been created to encourage additional conversations about the the Matrix, Intermarket Analysis, Long-Term Cycle Concentrations & Directions, the cycle of Accumulation & Distribution - the secret weapon of past trading masters like Richard Wyckoff and Jesse Livermore, as well as other interesting trading concepts. Please join the ongoing discussion.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Sentiment Model $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

The Sentiment model, an excellent standalone trading tool for US stocks include The Matrix, should be used by investors looking to outperform the buy-and-hold investment strategy. The model produces the following observations: (1) bull and bear phases have produced average annualized returns of 26% and 60% and 32% and -7% since 1992 and 2017; these returns significantly outperform buy-and-hold (B&H) average annualized returns of 8% and 7% over the same periods, and (2) stock returns are clearly not random as taught by popular academic theories.

Sentiment Model Output 2015 and 2016

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.